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TODO.improve-compare.md

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Improve & compare — the plan (2026-09-01)

State: teacher r7 2.2864; best student 4.5701 (6ep, Muon); gap ~2.28pp = ~0.25pp epochs (taken) + ~2.0pp domain (attribution stands, G2a full-set) + residual optimization headroom (CE 0.0013 — thin).

A. Improve — levers, ranked by measured attribution

# Lever Mechanism Pre-registered gate Cost
A1 Domain-data rung (G2b) Tashkeela++ fetcher (rababa PR #1, open) -> more domain text -> r7 relabel -> 6ep+Muon distill >= 0.5pp full-set gain attributes to domain; else the residual is optimization-adjacent label+train ~1d GPU
A2 layerdrop @ 6ep (browser-lite 2.1) same epochs/labels/optimizer as G2a, half depth tracks G2a's gain within 0.1pp (depth-cut shares the levers) ~6h GPU
A3 MTP-aux rung (E5) multi-token-prediction auxiliary heads densify per-position supervision; candidate vs repetition pathologies >= 0.3pp full-set OR measurably fewer decode loops ~1d GPU + head code
A4 int4-lite export + margins gate quantize A2's artifact; E1-style margin flip gate before ship flips < 1% at confident margins CPU only
A5 r8 multi-seed (paper A rigor) 2 extra seeds, morph-vs-none arms direction stable across seeds teacher-tier GPU, expensive
A6 Hebrew replication rung layerdrop on heb teacher law replicates cross-lingually ~1d GPU

Run A1/A2 first (biggest attribution pool); A3 is the novel-method bet; A5/A6 are paper-rigor items.

B. Compare — the apparatus (all built, mostly deployed)

  1. Full-set-only publication rule — 4 documented overstatement instances (3.66->8.26, 3.81->7.44, 2.01->4.57 subset->full; the G2a near-overturn is the flagship exhibit). Never publish subset.
  2. Paired bootstrap CIs — in the harness (delta/ci95/p_leq0, seed 42, sentence-level resampling). TODO: retrofit the headline specs (2.0, layerdrop, 1.0) so every paper table has brackets.
  3. Offline pairing — final_preds.jsonl per run: any two runs on the same inputs pair without GPU; keep every future eval emitting it.
  4. Provenance — labels sha256 + bytes in every verdict (live); artifact sha256 in models.yaml; protocol disclosure lines (decode params; LLM rows disclose reasoning_effort — GLM-5.3 memo).
  5. Subset-vs-full as a figure — four pairs, one scatter; the measurement-discipline exhibit for paper B.
  6. Leaderboard protocol-matching — dedicated vs prompted rows separated; GLM-5.3-Flash row (8.59/8.90) recorded; rababa PRs #64/#66 pending user rebase.
  7. Systems tiers — bench E1/E2 measured (verification free; int8>int4 decode); E3 browser cell pending.

C. Immediate queue

  1. G2a CI rerun (in flight) -> CI table into RESULTS + paper tables
  2. A2 layerdrop-6ep spec + launch
  3. A1: rebase/merge rababa PR #1, fetch corpus, launch G2b
  4. E3 browser bench scaffold
  5. Paper B decomposition rewrite with G2a numbers + CI brackets