From 5f8ab42b60beab127e8e24f60fe39619c0258de1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ronald Tse Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2026 07:03:00 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?docs:=20verdict=20wave=202=20=E2=80=94=20dose-r?= =?UTF-8?q?esponse=20mapped,=20r8d=20at=20the=20knee,=20specialist=20stage?= =?UTF-8?q?d?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- TODO.sota/00-README.md | 2 +- docs/RESULTS.md | 23 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 24 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/TODO.sota/00-README.md b/TODO.sota/00-README.md index 0b54c80..02ef3ed 100644 --- a/TODO.sota/00-README.md +++ b/TODO.sota/00-README.md @@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ hf jobs run --flavor a100-large -d \ | 14 | 14-ts-plane-port.md | P2 | — | DONE (ts#99/#100/#101, CI leg models#265) | | 15 | 15-api-edge.md | P2 | 14 | DONE (api#29: edge-first /v1/infer, kind in index) | | 16 | 16-parking-lot.md | — | — | parked (not now) | -| 17 | 17-arabic-register-closure.md | P1 | 11 | r8a RUNNING; r8b launching | +| 17 | 17-arabic-register-closure.md | P1 | 11 | dose-response MAPPED (RESULTS wave 2); r8d knee-seeking RUNNING; specialist option staged | | 18 | 18-parity-runs.md | P1 | 10 | pending | | 19 | 19-lexicon-loader.md | P2 | 13 | DONE (py#33) | | 20 | 20-hebrew-large-arm.md | P1 | 04 | NEGATIVE — 8.48 vs base 8.18; base stays shipped | diff --git a/docs/RESULTS.md b/docs/RESULTS.md index 2da0729..269f616 100644 --- a/docs/RESULTS.md +++ b/docs/RESULTS.md @@ -1247,3 +1247,26 @@ variant (r8d) can hold ID while keeping the OOD gain. **8.48** vs base's 8.31 (same protocol). 1.2B params on 50K units saturates; base stays shipped at 8.18. Capacity is not the Hebrew constraint at this data scale — data is. + +## WO17 verdict wave 2 — the dose-response curve mapped; r8d launched at the knee (2026-10-08) + +r8b (QCRI silver, 33% dose) completes the curve. All arms r7-init, +1 epoch, WINDOW=600, dual-surface gate: + +| arm | silver dose | SadeedDiac-25 DER (ID) | WikiNews-2024 multiref WER/DER (OOD) | +|---|---|---|---| +| r7 baseline | 0 | **2.2864** | 17.38 / 11.83 | +| r8a (arwiki self) | 2.7% | 2.9087 | 16.71 / 10.83 | +| **r8b (QCRI)** | 33% | 4.3911 | **11.03 / 9.24** | + +Readings: (1) news-register silver moves OOD monotonically and STEEPLY — +r8b takes **6.35 WER / 2.6 DER** off the OOD number, the largest +single-lever move of the campaign; (2) the ID cost is also monotone — +the frontier is Pareto, not a winner; (3) r8b doubles as a strong +NEWS-DOMAIN SPECIALIST (11.03 OOD, approaching QCRI's in-domain 2.70 +where our 17.38 was measured). + +Actions: **r8d launched** at the presumed knee (arwiki, 5K highest-keep +windows, lr 2e-5 — dose knobs train#115) targeting OOD ~13-15 with ID +≤2.5. Register-specialist ship option staged (WO24): ara-diac-news-1.0 +alongside ara-diac-2.0, two-families doctrine. r8c (both) pending.