feat(pm): census the open cards whose named changeset target is already consumed (#17245)

A card whose deliverable is one line in a pending `.changeset/*.md` carries a
hard deadline that nothing measured: once a release compiles the file into
`packages/<pkg>/CHANGELOG.md` the one-line edit is gone, while the card's prose
goes on asserting the file is "still pending" forever.

`scripts/pm/changeset-deadline-census.mjs` is the detection half, report-only:
it scans open issue BODIES for concrete `.changeset/<name>.md` paths and reports
each target's state on the ref. Presence is a LINE COUNT corroborated against a
single `.changeset/` listing — never an exit code, because `git ls-tree` exits 0
when nothing matches — and every run establishes a corpus, a positive and a
negative control before it judges a row, refusing outright when one fails. An
absent path is asked whether it ever landed, inside a history horizon proved per
row against the card's own filing date, so a shallow clone yields `inconclusive`
rather than a guess. The blind spots are printed by every run.

Nothing here fails a build: the new population is censused before anything is
enforced. Only the offline self-test runs in CI.


Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_012GKcPZbMoGq7WPzKLfRBTU

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: claude[bot]

.github/workflows/lint.yml

@@ -1103,6 +1103,28 @@ jobs:
       - name: Widening-tell gate self-test
         run: pnpm check:pm-widening-tells
 
+      # Changeset-deadline census self-test (#16850) — same family and the same
+      # split as every step around it. The LIVE census reads the shared board
+      # over the API and is REPORT-ONLY by ruling: #16850 takes option 1 (detect
+      # the consumption) under this lane's standing rule that a NEW scan
+      # population — here, issue BODIES — is censused before anything is
+      # enforced. So a card whose changeset window closed is a fact about the
+      # board, not about the PR that happens to run CI next, and failing that
+      # PR would punish the wrong actor.
+      #
+      # ⛔ Do not "promote" the live census into this step, and ⛔ do not give it
+      # a failing exit on findings. Whether the number justifies an exit
+      # contract at all is the question the census exists to answer, and the
+      # answer it produced on 2026-09-09 is in the PR that landed this file.
+      #
+      # What the self-test instruments is the MATCHING RULE and the CONTROLS —
+      # the two things a clean tree cannot exercise. Weakening either (counting
+      # the glob spelling as a target; accepting a zero without its positive
+      # control) leaves a production run just as green, which is the shape
+      # `check:self-test-wired` requires this step for.
+      - name: Changeset-deadline census self-test
+        run: pnpm check:pm-changeset-deadline-census
+
       # Governed-merges audit self-test (#9495) — same family, same split as
       # the half-state sweeper above: the live sweep enumerates the governed
       # merges since a date/ref for the PM round report — report-only by

package.json

@@ -79,6 +79,7 @@
     "check:pm-clause2-carriers": "node scripts/pm/check-clause2-carriers.mjs --self-test",
     "check:pm-widening-tells": "node scripts/pm/check-widening-tells.mjs --self-test",
     "check:pm-closed-card-sweep": "node scripts/pm/sweep-closed-cards.mjs --self-test",
+    "check:pm-changeset-deadline-census": "node scripts/pm/changeset-deadline-census.mjs --self-test",
     "check:pm-governed-merges": "node scripts/pm/check-governed-merges.mjs --self-test",
     "check:pm-governed-prose": "node scripts/pm/check-governed-prose.mjs --self-test && node scripts/pm/check-governed-prose.mjs",
     "check:publish-smoke-pin": "node scripts/publish-smoke-pack.mjs --self-test",