PhD researcher in Civil Engineering at Oregon State University
I study how uncertainty and correlation affect regional earthquake and tsunami risk estimates, from ground motion and building damage to population displacement and insured portfolio loss.
- Earthquake and tsunami risk assessment
- Spatial correlation, statistical dependence, and uncertainty propagation
- Structural and nonstructural damage modeling using HAZUS
- Community resilience and post-disaster population displacement
- Catastrophe risk, insurance, reinsurance, parametric risk transfer, and insurance-linked securities
A reproducible, 13-notebook earthquake catastrophe-risk model built from the USGS 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model. The workflow follows a common 2,000,000-year stochastic event catalog through ground-motion fields, structural and nonstructural damage, insured portfolio loss, reinsurance, and parametric basis risk.
- 470-building synthetic portfolio in Seaside, Oregon
- Independent and two spatially correlated ground-motion cases
- AAL, AEP, OEP, PML, VaR, and TVaR analysis
- Occurrence and annual aggregate reinsurance
- Parametric catastrophe-bond trigger and basis-risk evaluation
- 92 automated tests with reproducible random streams and artifact checks
Under the same occurrence reinsurance program, the modeled 2,500-year retained AEP PML increased from $19.36 million in the independent case to $33.27 million and $34.08 million under the two spatial-correlation models. These results are conditional on the demonstration portfolio and its modeling assumptions.
Python, Jupyter, Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic event catalogs, spatial statistics, Gaussian copulas, geospatial analysis, USGS seismic source models, HAZUS fragility and damage models, insurance and reinsurance loss calculations, and reproducible scientific computing.
Doctoral Researcher in Civil Engineering at Oregon State University