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Correct the scaling claim the case study could not support - #145

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rajeeja/case-study-reproduction
Sep 12, 2026
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rajeeja/case-study-reproduction

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@rajeeja rajeeja commented Sep 12, 2026

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The case study claimed the 10-year run scaled linearly at ~46 s per year, "which confirms I/O bound with no meaningful per-call overhead" — but its own measurements (29.1 s for one year, 464.4 s for ten) fit a line with a negative intercept, so every year after the first costs ~48 s and throughput drops from 129 MB/s to 81 MB/s. Both numbers now appear with the page cache named as the suspected cause rather than a linearity law asserted. Also corrects the tool count (33, not 31) in both write-ups and a stale 112 KB / 320,000:1 figure on the demo page against the measured 177,737-byte artifact.

Adds the five worker stages, links to docs/tools.md and docs/architecture.md, a reproducing section for scripts/reproduce_conus_case_study.py, and a link from the root README, which did not mention the case study at all. The rerun documented there shares a PBS job with the original run, so its byte-identical PNG is called a determinism result and not cross-allocation reproducibility.

The case study said the 10-year run cost ~46 s per year of data, "dead
linear, which confirms I/O bound with no meaningful per-call overhead."
Its own two measurements say otherwise: one year takes 29.1 s and ten
take 464.4 s, so a line through them has a negative intercept and each
year after the first costs about 48 s. Throughput agrees -- 129 MB/s on
the single-year read against 81 MB/s across ten. The likely cause is a
warm page cache on the 1979 file, which was read repeatedly while the
case study was written, so both numbers are now given with ~48 s/year as
the one to plan with and the cache named as a suspicion rather than a
result.

Two other numbers were wrong. The advertised tool count is 33, not 31,
in both write-ups. The demo page still carried a 112 KB PNG and a
320,000:1 ratio from an earlier render; the measured artifact is 177,737
bytes, so the ratio is ~210,000:1.

Adds what the case study was missing: the five stages the worker runs,
pointers to the full tool menu and the architecture doc, and a
reproducing section covering scripts/reproduce_conus_case_study.py and
what a rerun showed. That rerun landed on the same PBS job as the
original, so its byte-identical PNG is a determinism result and not
evidence of reproducibility across allocations -- which the new section
says outright. Also links the case study from the root README, where it
was not mentioned at all.
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rajeeja merged commit a7dfb05 into main Sep 12, 2026
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rajeeja deleted the rajeeja/case-study-reproduction branch September 12, 2026 04:49
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