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golden: freeze the IMPROVE neoepitope example outputs - #4

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Oct 7, 2026
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@aRealGem aRealGem commented Oct 7, 2026

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Requested by Precious · project thread

Before: the IMPROVE neoepitope example (#1) had scripts only. Unlike GUSTO and PCam, it had no committed run output, no report and no regression baseline, so nobody could see what predval found on it without rebuilding everything.

After: tests/golden/improve/ freezes a full B=2000 run, docs/reports/improve.html publishes the report, and tests/test_golden_improve.py checks a fresh run against the frozen files. Like the other two golden tests, it is opt-in with PREDVAL_RUN_GOLDEN=1.

How: the fixture was built from the public SRHgroup/IMPROVE_paper release, pinned to commit c670942 and to the results.zip sha256 recorded in GOLDEN.md. A second independent run passed the new golden test, so every output reproduced byte-for-byte (findings.json excludes its git-commit field). No src/ changes. Ruff and the default pytest suite pass locally.

Headline numbers pinned (detail in tests/golden/improve/GOLDEN.md):

  • The six IMPROVE random-forest configurations predict a mean probability of about 0.40 against an observed 2.67% rate. That is roughly 15× too high: intercept about −3.25 (CI excludes 0), slope about 1.1 (CI includes 1).
  • Cross-fitted intercept-only recalibration on held-out patients cuts Brier from about 0.17 to 0.0258. The prevalence-only constant scores 0.0259.
  • NNAlign is anchored (intercept −0.09 [−0.33, 0.15]).
  • Patient-clustered AUROC intervals are 1.3–1.7× wider than naive per-peptide ones.

Interaction with the coverage-delta fix (#3 / claude/project-thread-n263n3): IMPROVE has 100% coverage for every model, so every finite cov_delta is 0. Both fixes only change how missing or invented cells are handled, and neither touches the parquet artefacts. The golden files are therefore unaffected by either fix.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_01E5Q2q7a7gF1tUX8y6fRV7m


Generated by Claude Code

The IMPROVE example landed in #1 with scripts only; no run output was
committed. This freezes a B=2000 run built from the public IMPROVE_paper
release (commit c670942, results.zip sha256 2689700...) as a golden
baseline, adds the opt-in regression test matching the GUSTO and PCam
ones, and publishes the report under docs/reports/.

A second independent run reproduced every artefact byte-for-byte
(findings.json modulo provenance.git_commit).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01E5Q2q7a7gF1tUX8y6fRV7m
@aRealGem aRealGem self-assigned this Oct 7, 2026
@aRealGem
aRealGem merged commit 4eec985 into main Oct 7, 2026
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2 participants