Re-fit TOP's last moved band, 2024's share, from 7.7% to 7.3% (#734) - #738
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#737 re-fit tobacco but merged before its own CI reported, so it fixed two of the three bands #734 moved. The run that finished afterwards (33066747660) shows the third: the 2024 half-sum share is 0.0733 against 0.077 +/- 0.003. The other bands are confirmed unmoved by the same run - tobacco holds at -26,278 and 5241XX 2020 at 17,791, and the 2020 share holds at 0.063. Grouping the four into two dict comparisons is what surfaced all of them at once instead of one per 8-minute round. The fall needed checking rather than re-fitting, because the docstring names a fall as the signal that the residual stopped moving. It has not: the frozen-share value for 2024 is 5.8%, and 7.3% is a long way above it, while tobacco's own gap grew over the same change. #734 re-allocated within a residual that still moves. Recorded that reasoning in the docstring so the next fall is measured against 5.8% rather than against whatever the band happens to say. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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nowcastis still red. #737 re-fit tobacco but was merged before its own CI reported, so it fixed two of the three bands #734 moved.Run 33066747660, which finished after that merge, shows the third:
What the same run confirms is fine
The grouped asserts from #737 checked all four bands in one pass, so this is now settled rather than guessed:
3122002024-26,2785241XX202017,7910.0630.0733vs0.077 ± 0.003Without the grouping this would have cost one 8½-minute round per band.
Why this fall is a re-fit and not the alarm
The docstring says "A fall here would mean the residual had stopped moving", so I checked it rather than re-fitting past it.
The number that would mean the residual stopped moving is the frozen-share one, which the same docstring records as 5.8% for 2024. We are at 7.3% — a long way above it — and tobacco's own gap grew over the same change. So #734 re-allocated within a residual that is still moving, rather than flattening it.
I put that reasoning in the docstring, so the next fall gets measured against 5.8% rather than against whatever the band happens to say at the time.