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ronaldtse merged 1 commit into from
Oct 7, 2026
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docs: SOTA graph + matrix #270

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32 changes: 32 additions & 0 deletions TODO.sota/00-README.md
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Expand Up @@ -64,3 +64,35 @@ Wave 1 (local, days): WO01, WO02, WO03, WO07 + infra #44.
Wave 2 (HF training, launched together): WO04 (a100-large), WO06
(a100-large), WO08 (l4x1) — run concurrently, watch via `hf jobs ls`.
Wave 3: WO05 tables after 01+07 land; WO09 probe only.

## Path-to-success graph + SOTA matrix (2026-10-07, live)

```
ARABIC ── in-domain (SadeedDiac-25) HEBREW ── nikud (nakdimon)
r7 2.2864 [BEST dedicated] heb-plane-2.0 8.18 [BEST text-only]
Claude-3.7 1.39 (API LLM; hallucinates) next: us (12.48) → 16.4 → 35.6
│ │
└─ r8a (self-labeled arwiki) RUNNING └─ byt5-large/K=4 (untried)
└─ r8b (QCRI silver) RUNNING HEBREW ── g2p IPA (their board)
└─ gate: hold ID ≤2.2864 AND rules chain 0.2393 CER (0-train)
move OOD 17.38 → ≤10 ReNikud 0.0244 (audio-supervised)
└─ learned IPA head: BLOCKED
ARABIC ── OOD (WikiNews-2024 multiref) (espeak ceiling 0.4543; needs
r7 17.38/11.83 · plane 18.69/11.35 MILIM or audio = 2027)
QCRI 2.70 (in-domain-trained silver)
└─ register closure = r8a/r8b above THAI ── g2p (kaikki protocol)
hybrid 0.1478 PER @0.73ms [BEST]
ARABIC plane ── 2.7397 (large) ── r8 recipe tiny student RUNNING (<10MB tier)
transfers to plane family post-r8 CLIENT SURFACE — 3-runtime parity ✓
+ preserve mode ✓ + edge /v1/infer ✓
+ index-v9 + 28 sha-verified models
```

| axis | ours | 2026 frontier | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR in-domain DER | 2.2864 | 1.39 (LLM API) | #1 dedicated; r8 arms closing |
| AR OOD multiref WER | 17.38 | 2.70 (their-domain) | register gap; r8a/r8b attacking |
| HE nikud DER | 8.18 | — (we lead) | crown held; base+K=3 |
| HE g2p CER | 0.2393 (rules) | 0.0244 (audio) | blocked on supervision (2027) |
| TH PER | 0.1478 | 26.9 (latency play) | crown held + hybrid latency tier |
| client surface | 3 runtimes + edge | none exists | moat maintained |
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