Add knockout stage results tracking and condition projections on real outcomes#5
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nomastudioai wants to merge 2 commits into
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Add knockout stage results tracking and condition projections on real outcomes#5nomastudioai wants to merge 2 commits into
nomastudioai wants to merge 2 commits into
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Runs the daily pipeline: refreshes live Elo from eloratings.net and regenerates the Monte Carlo simulation, projected bracket and README block. Knockout ties remain model projections (no real Round-of-32 / Round-of-16 results are recorded in the repo yet). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01GmtcBGn7eopeUJMJ41KC9S
The knockout stage through the Round of 16 has been played. Add the real results in a new data/knockout-resultados-2026.json (24 ties, verified against the official bracket topology and the final group tables) and make the projection and Monte Carlo condition on them: - proyeccion.mjs: real winners advance, so the projected bracket now starts from the eight real quarter-finalists (France, Morocco, Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina, Switzerland). Each played tie also records the model's pre-match pick and whether it hit. - simular.mjs: fixed rounds are no longer sampled, so finalist/champion probabilities reflect the real bracket (eliminated teams drop to 0%). - genera-predicciones.mjs: new "knockout so far: predictions vs results" section (19/24 correct) and a projected-rest-of-bracket section from the quarter-finals; finalist table lists only teams still alive. Projected quarter-finals: France-Morocco, Spain-Belgium, Norway-England, Argentina-Switzerland. Projected champion: Spain. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01GmtcBGn7eopeUJMJ41KC9S
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Summary
This PR adds support for tracking real knockout stage results and conditioning the tournament projections and Monte Carlo simulations on actual match outcomes. Previously, the model only predicted the entire bracket from the group stage onwards. Now it can incorporate real Round of 32 and Round of 16 results to provide updated predictions for remaining rounds.
Key Changes
New data file (
knockout-resultados-2026.json): Stores real knockout match results (goals, penalties, winner) with metadata about when results were recorded. Includes 16 matches from Round of 32 and Round of 16.Projection logic (
proyeccion.mjs):Simulation logic (
simular.mjs):Report generation (
genera-predicciones.mjs):Updated predictions (PREDICCIONES.md, README.md):
Implementation Details
knockout-resultados-2026.jsondoesn't exist, the system falls back to full bracket prediction[home_goals, away_goals]tupleas_of) in results file controls report generation datehttps://claude.ai/code/session_01GmtcBGn7eopeUJMJ41KC9S