[new-plugin] football-match-predictor v1.0.0

skills/football-match-predictor/.claude-plugin/plugin.json

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+{
+  "name": "football-match-predictor",
+  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "description": "A risk-limited Polymarket strategy skill for finding and sizing football match prediction market trades.",
+  "author": {
+    "name": "stefan",
+    "github": "xiao-fan"
+  },
+  "license": "MIT",
+  "keywords": [
+    "polymarket",
+    "football",
+    "soccer",
+    "prediction-market",
+    "sports",
+    "strategy"
+  ]
+}

skills/football-match-predictor/LICENSE

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+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 xiao-fan
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

skills/football-match-predictor/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: football-match-predictor
+description: Use this skill to analyze football/soccer prediction markets on Polymarket, rank match outcome opportunities, build risk-limited trade plans, and execute only confirmed trades through the Polymarket plugin with strategy attribution.
+version: "1.0.0"
+author: "stefan"
+tags:
+  - polymarket
+  - football
+  - soccer
+  - prediction-market
+  - sports
+  - strategy
+---
+
+# Football Match Predictor
+
+Analyze football/soccer markets on Polymarket and prepare risk-limited trades.
+Use `polymarket-plugin` for all market discovery, orderbook inspection, and
+execution. Never place a trade without explicit user confirmation.
+
+This is a prediction-market workflow, not a guarantee of match outcomes. Always
+show uncertainty, maximum loss, and the reason a market is being skipped or
+included.
+
+## Overview
+
+This skill helps an AI agent find football/soccer event markets on Polymarket,
+evaluate market structure, estimate risk-adjusted edge, and prepare trade plans
+with strict exposure limits. It is a Skill-only strategy that depends on the
+official `polymarket-plugin`; it does not implement its own wallet, signing, or
+transaction logic.
+
+## Trigger Phrases
+
+Use this skill when the user asks to:
+
+- predict a football/soccer match
+- find football betting or prediction market opportunities
+- analyze a Polymarket sports market
+- build a football match trade plan
+- trade a football match market through Polymarket
+
+## Default Safety Settings
+
+- `strategy_id`: `football-match-predictor`
+- default mode: analysis only
+- default dry run before live trading: yes
+- default max per market: `10 USDC`
+- default max session exposure: `30 USDC`
+- minimum liquidity: `1000 USDC`
+- maximum spread: `0.08`
+- minimum time to scheduled event start: `2 hours`
+- never use leverage
+- never average down automatically
+- never trade if market resolution rules are unclear
+
+If the user provides stricter limits, use the stricter limits. If the user asks
+for larger live exposure, restate the total maximum loss before requesting final
+confirmation.
+
+## Pre-flight Checks
+
+Before live trading:
+
+1. Ensure `polymarket-plugin` is installed and available.
+2. Run `polymarket-plugin check-access` and stop if the user is in a restricted
+   region.
+3. Run `polymarket-plugin balance` and confirm sufficient funds for the planned
+   maximum loss.
+4. If wallet/session errors occur, follow the recovery guidance from
+   `polymarket-plugin` instead of asking for private keys or seed phrases.
+
+Read-only market discovery can run before wallet checks, but no live order can
+be prepared for final confirmation until access and balance are checked.
+
+## Workflow
+
+1. Parse the user's target.
+   - Teams, league, date, tournament, or general slate.
+   - Budget, max per market, risk preference, and live execution preference.
+   - If missing, assume analysis-only and `10 USDC` max per market.
+
+2. Discover markets with `polymarket-plugin`.
+   - Search for football and soccer terms plus team names.
+   - Include common market language such as `winner`, `match`, `qualify`,
+     `league`, `cup`, and the league name if provided.
+   - Prefer active markets with clear resolution rules.
+
+3. Inspect each candidate.
+   - Fetch market details and orderbook.
+   - Record outcome prices, bid/ask spread, liquidity, volume, close time, and
+     resolution wording.
+   - Skip markets with ambiguous wording, low liquidity, stale data, or spreads
+     wider than the configured limit.
+
+4. Score candidates.
+   - Convert ask price to implied probability.
+   - Estimate fair probability only from available evidence. If no team news or
+     model evidence is available, label the forecast as market-implied only.
+   - Compute edge as `estimated_probability - ask_price`.
+   - Apply penalties for wide spread, low liquidity, event timing risk, and
+     ambiguous resolution.
+   - Rank by risk-adjusted edge, not by excitement or payout.
+
+5. Build the trade plan.
+   - Show selected market, outcome, ask price, implied probability, estimated
+     probability, edge, liquidity, spread, recommended size, and maximum loss.
+   - Use smaller sizing when confidence is low:
+     - high confidence: up to 100% of per-market cap
+     - medium confidence: up to 50% of per-market cap
+     - low confidence: no live trade, watchlist only
+   - Total recommended size must not exceed the session cap.
+
+6. Dry run first.
+   - Present the exact intended Polymarket action.
+   - Use dry-run or preview mode if available in `polymarket-plugin`.
+   - Ask for explicit confirmation before any live order.
+
+7. Execute only after confirmation.
+   - Use the official Polymarket plugin command or tool for execution.
+   - Include `--strategy-id football-match-predictor` on every trade command
+     when the interface supports strategy attribution.
+   - Reconfirm if price moves, available liquidity changes, or the total maximum
+     loss increases.
+
+## Commands
+
+Use these commands through `polymarket-plugin`:
+
+```bash
+polymarket-plugin list-markets --keyword "<team-or-football-keyword>"
+polymarket-plugin get-market --market-id <slug_or_condition_id>
+polymarket-plugin balance
+polymarket-plugin buy --market-id <id> --outcome <outcome> --amount <usdc> --price <0-1> --dry-run --strategy-id football-match-predictor
+polymarket-plugin buy --market-id <id> --outcome <outcome> --amount <usdc> --price <0-1> --strategy-id football-match-predictor
+polymarket-plugin sell --market-id <id> --outcome <outcome> --shares <shares> --price <0-1> --dry-run --strategy-id football-match-predictor
+polymarket-plugin sell --market-id <id> --outcome <outcome> --shares <shares> --price <0-1> --strategy-id football-match-predictor
+```
+
+Command rules:
+
+- Use `list-markets` first, then `get-market` for each candidate.
+- Prefer limit orders with `--price`; use immediate orders only when the user
+  explicitly wants immediate execution.
+- Always run the `--dry-run` command before the corresponding live command.
+- Include `--strategy-id football-match-predictor` for buy and sell commands.
+- Display only human-relevant fields from plugin output: market title, outcome,
+  price, amount, order id, status, and PnL if available.
+
+## Output Format
+
+Use this format for analysis:
+
+```text
+Football Match Predictor
+
+Scope: [teams/league/date]
+Mode: [analysis-only | dry-run | live after confirmation]
+Limits: max [x] USDC per market, max [y] USDC session exposure
+
+Top markets:
+1. [Market title]
+   Outcome: [YES/NO/team/outcome]
+   Ask: [price] ([implied probability] implied)
+   Estimated probability: [estimate or "market-implied only"]
+   Edge: [edge or "not estimated"]
+   Liquidity: [value]
+   Spread: [value]
+   Recommendation: [watchlist | dry-run | trade]
+   Size: [USDC]
+   Max loss: [USDC]
+   Reason: [short rationale]
+
+Skipped:
+- [Market]: [reason]
+
+Next action:
+[No trade / dry-run command / ask for confirmation]
+```
+
+For live trading, ask a direct confirmation question:
+
+```text
+Confirm live Polymarket trade:
+[buy/sell] [outcome] on [market] for up to [amount] USDC.
+Maximum loss: [amount] USDC.
+Strategy id: football-match-predictor.
+
+Reply "confirm" to execute.
+```
+
+## Polymarket Execution Rules
+
+- Route all market access and order execution through `polymarket-plugin`.
+- Do not construct raw Polymarket transactions manually.
+- Do not request, store, or print private keys or seed phrases.
+- Do not bypass wallet confirmation.
+- Do not split orders to avoid limits.
+- Do not trade resolved, paused, unclear, or low-liquidity markets.
+- If a trade is executed, report filled amount, average price, market, outcome,
+  transaction/order id if available, and remaining session exposure.
+
+## Error Handling
+
+| Error | Cause | Resolution |
+|-------|-------|------------|
+| Restricted access | Region is not supported | Stop before funding or trading. |
+| Market not found | Team/league/date query is ambiguous | Ask for the exact team, league, date, or Polymarket URL. |
+| Low liquidity | Orderbook cannot support the requested size | Reduce size or skip the market. |
+| Wide spread | Execution price is unreliable | Skip unless the user explicitly accepts the spread. |
+| Insufficient balance | Wallet/proxy lacks funds | Lower exposure or ask the user to fund through the official plugin flow. |
+| Session expired | Onchain OS authentication expired | Follow `polymarket-plugin` session recovery; never request keys. |
+| Price moved after dry-run | Market changed before confirmation | Re-run analysis and ask for confirmation again. |
+
+## Forecasting Rules
+
+Use cautious language:
+
+- Prefer `market-implied probability`, `estimated probability`, and
+  `risk-adjusted edge`.
+- Avoid absolute claims such as `lock`, `guaranteed`, or `sure win`.
+- If current team news, lineups, injuries, or weather are unavailable, say so and
+  avoid creating a fake precision forecast.
+- If the user supplies team context, separate user-provided assumptions from
+  market data.
+
+When only market data is available, the skill may still rank markets by
+liquidity, spread, implied probability, and risk controls, but it must label the
+result as market-structure analysis rather than a fundamental match prediction.
+
+## Refusal and Pause Conditions
+
+Pause and ask for clarification instead of trading when:
+
+- The requested market cannot be clearly matched.
+- Resolution wording is ambiguous.
+- The event appears already started and the user did not explicitly request live
+  in-play analysis.
+- The user asks to exceed their configured budget or the default session cap.
+- The user asks for guaranteed profit or asks to hide risk.
+
+Refuse to continue if the user asks for private-key handling, evasion of wallet
+confirmation, market manipulation, or misleading promotion of results.
+
+## Security Notices
+
+- This skill can lead to real-money Polymarket trades only after explicit user
+  confirmation.
+- Prediction markets can resolve to zero. Show maximum loss for every proposed
+  trade.
+- Do not provide gambling-style guarantees or hide uncertainty.
+- Do not handle private keys, seed phrases, raw signatures, or manual
+  transaction construction.
+- Do not call undeclared external APIs from this skill. All Polymarket data and
+  execution must route through `polymarket-plugin`.

skills/football-match-predictor/SUMMARY.md

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+## Overview
+
+Football Match Predictor is a conservative strategy skill for Polymarket football
+and soccer event markets. It searches for relevant match markets, filters out
+thin or wide-spread books, converts market prices into implied probabilities,
+and prepares small, capped trades only after explicit user confirmation.
+
+The skill is designed for OKX Onchain OS strategy workflows and delegates all
+market access and execution to `polymarket-plugin`. It does not custody funds,
+does not use private keys, and does not claim guaranteed prediction accuracy.
+
+## Prerequisites
+
+- `polymarket-plugin` installed from `okx/plugin-store`.
+- Polymarket access allowed in the user's region.
+- Onchain OS wallet configured before live trading.
+- Sufficient Polymarket balance for the planned maximum loss.
+
+## Quick Start
+
+1. Ask for a team, match, league, date, or football slate.
+2. Search active Polymarket football/soccer markets through
+   `polymarket-plugin`.
+3. Inspect market details, liquidity, spread, close time, and resolution rules.
+4. Present an analysis-only or dry-run trade plan with maximum loss.
+5. Execute only after explicit user confirmation.
+
+## Best Use Cases
+
+- Find liquid football match markets on Polymarket.
+- Compare implied probabilities across match outcomes.
+- Build a small, risk-capped trade plan for a single match or slate.
+- Execute confirmed trades with a stable strategy id for attribution.
+
+## Risk Controls
+
+- Defaults to analysis or dry-run before live execution.
+- Requires explicit confirmation before any buy or sell command.
+- Caps per-market and session exposure.
+- Avoids markets with low liquidity, stale timing, or wide spreads.
+- Shows maximum loss before execution.

skills/football-match-predictor/plugin.yaml

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+schema_version: 1
+name: football-match-predictor
+version: "1.0.0"
+description: "A risk-limited Polymarket strategy skill for finding and sizing football match prediction market trades."
+author:
+  name: "stefan"
+  github: "xiao-fan"
+license: MIT
+category: trading-strategy
+tags:
+  - polymarket
+  - football
+  - soccer
+  - prediction-market
+  - sports
+  - strategy
+
+components:
+  skill:
+    dir: "."
+
+api_calls: []